At a rally in Pennsylvania in September, Donald Trump maintained "as President I have to be your protector," a remark which would alienate some women and please only those women who already were determined to vote for the faux macho ex-President. Then he added "women will be happy, healthy, confident and free. You will no longer be thinking about abortion," thus reinforcing the Democrats' claim that the GOP ticket is weird.
Recently, at a rally near Green Bay, Wisconsin
"My people told me about four weeks ago, I would say 'no, I want to protect the people. I want to protect the women of our country. I want to protect the women,'" (Donald) Trump said, describing how his advisers said it would be "very inappropriate for you to say."
Inappropriate, patronizing and creepy but then the Republican presidential nominee continued "I said "Well, I'm going to do it, whether the women like it or not, I'm going to protect them.'" The "whether the women like it or not" is akin to bad icing on a terrible cake. It only made it worse.
Further, if his advisers told him it would be "inappropriate" to say, it should have brought to mind Hillary Clinton's infamous "basket of deplorables" comment in September of 2016, which was immediately preceded by 'You know, to just be grossly generalistic..." Pro tip: when you suspect you're being "grossly generalistic," stop right there. And when your advisers suggest your words would be "very inappropriate," stop right there.
But that was not Trump's biggest mistake of the week. When comedian Tony Hinchcliffe at the Madison Square Garden rally of the ex-President characterized Puerto Rico as a "floating island of garbage," he sparked inevitable backlash.
The remark itself was not disastrous. It was Trump's reaction to it which was, if not disastrous, obviously self-defeating. The candidate could have absorbed the blowback and let it die out. Or he could hold a rally in majority-Latino Allentown, Pa. and turn it into a Sister Souljah or Sister Souljah-like moment, turning the kerfuffle to his advantage
Continuing a bad campaign, he decided to do neither.
Trump could have denounced the offensive, pejorative remark, a la Bill Clinton's attack on Sister Souljah. Or he might have criticized comedian Hinchcliffe while insisting that this has nothing to do with immigration or the "the border," Republican-speak for "illegal immigration" (or perhaps "immigration," period). Puerto Ricans, he would have explained, are Americans and are entitled to respect and protection- unlike the hordes of individuals who, in MAGA world, threaten the homeland, take benefits from taxpayers, and vote Democratic.
Instead, he took the weasel's way out and ignored the controversy. Thrown a hanging curve by the intemperate remark of a comedian, Trump took the pitch for a called strike.
As Kamala Harris toured with Liz Cheney, touted endorsements from hundreds of Republicans, and promised to put a Republican into her cabinet and otherwise sought the vote of Republicans skeptical of her opponent, journalists, pundits, and others noted the absence of Nikki Haley in the Trump effort. The nominee would have had to swallow a little pride, but among Republicans, Haley trumps Cheney and then some.
In the past month, the GOP presidential candidate has traveled to California, New York City, and New Mexico: Safe bet: Kamala Harris wins all three states, the first two easily, the third fairly comfortably.
Something very unusual is occurring in the Trump campaign. However, if one is to recognize this and also believe journalist and lawyer Eli Mystal, there may be an explanation, though it is a little complicated.
Set-up:
During the Nazi-throwback rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, after Donald Trump and his MAGA cohorts finished insulting pretty much every non-white person who might even think of voting for him, Trump revealed that he doesn’t actually need votes to be installed as president again. Referencing a “secret plan” he has with Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, Trump said this: “I think with our little secret we are gonna do really well with the House, our little secret is having a big impact, he and I have a little secret, we will tell you what it is when the race is over.”
When pressed, Speaker Johnson released a statement effectively confirming the existence of the plot: “By definition, a secret is not to be shared—and I don’t intend to share this one.”
Constitutional background:
Most educated guesses assume that Trump and Johnson are “secretly” talking about installing Trump as president through a “contingent election,” whereby the House of Representatives, not the Electoral College, determines the president. I think the plot goes deeper than that, but let’s start with the contingent election idea.
To understand how this could work, you have to understand the 12th Amendment of the Constitution. Here’s the key language: “The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote[.]”
This is what people are talking about when they mention a contingent elAs John Roberts and his cabal of antidemocratic goons (and their wives) have repeatedly shown this year, the Supreme Court is willing to do Trump’s dirty work. In 2020, the Supreme Court rejected almost all of Trump’s various nonsensical claims to overturn that election. But I wouldn’t be so sure they’ll do so again, especially because this time the Trump people will not necessarily be asking the court to overturn the results of a state’s election. They’ll just be asking them to delay certification of those results, until some later date. In addition to ruling for the Trumpers outright, the court could simply delay hearing the case for as long as the delay is helpful for Trump. The Supreme Court can put its thumb on the scale for Trump simply by pretending to “stay out of it” and allowing the “process” to play itself out.
If enough states refuse to certify the results of the election and submit a slate of electors—with the Supreme Court’s blessing—the math is not actually hard for Trump. What the amendment means is that, if no candidate wins a majority of the Electoral College, the House gets to decide who the president is. The key here is that the process is based not on a vote of the full House but a vote of House delegations, with each state getting an equal vote. Currently, Republicans control 26 of the 50 House delegations, meaning they could hand Trump the presidency in a contingent election scenario.
Method:
That would be a neat trick for Trump, but I don’t think the Republican plan even requires them to get to a contingent election where the House chooses the president. I think the plan is to steal the Electoral College outright by getting states Trump loses to refuse to certify the results of their election. That’s because the 12th Amendment provides that the president is the person who wins the majority of the “whole number of Electors appointed.” That “whole number” is supposed to be 538. But one potential reading of the amendment is that Trump doesn’t have to win 270 Electoral College votes but just a majority of however many electors show up. Trump’s goal, I believe, is to decrease the number of electors appointed until he wins.
The first step in such a process is to get Republicans in states Trump loses to contest the certification of their own elections. In 2020, Trump and his team illegally tried to get slates of alternate electors submitted in states where Republicans control the state legislatures. They could try that again, but for this scheme to work, they don’t even have to get “fake” electors submitted but just to convince Republican state legislatures or Republican governors not to submit their valid slates of electors before statutorily imposed deadlines. All slates of electors are supposed to be certified by December 11. Those electors are then supposed to vote and submit their results by December 25.
What this means is that Republicans just have to delay long enough to pass those deadlines. They don’t have to win; they just have to stall.
There are currently 27 states with Republican state legislatures, including Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. There are currently 26 Republican governors running states like Florida, Georgia, Nevada, and Virginia. If some of these people are able to delay certification past the deadline, the “whole number of Electors appointed” would be diminished, lowering the number of electors Trump would need to hold a majority.
Johnson:
The new House isn’t sworn in until January 3. As the violent MAGA people in your family already know, January 6 is when the House certifies the results of the Electoral College, but that is just a ceremonial day. By the time we get to January 6, the electors are supposed to have voted. December 11 is the deadline for appointing electors, December 25 the deadline for voting. Mike Johnson will still be in charge on both of those days.
The odds are against this ensuing because Trump has an approximately 50% chance of winning outright, itself a frightening prospect and damning indictment of the American electorate. However, if Harris wins and without an Electoral College blowout, chances are that Trump and/or Johnson will attempt this maneuver or something very close to it.
The late, great New York-based radio host Barry Gray would frequently assert "I love a hungry fighter." Trump certainly is a fighter, going even so far as threatening enemies with execution. However, a plan to manipulate the 12th Amendment to his advantage, coupled with the conduct of a very bad campaign, should prompt doubt that Donald Trump is hungry for an actual win at the polls.
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