Saturday, October 26, 2024

Danger Below Deck



It's over! Kamala Harris has been elected President and Donald J. Trump has been shoved into the dustbin of history. We know that because

At a rally Friday in Houston in front of 30,000 people — the biggest crowd of her campaign — the vice president sought to unleash the energy of her first days as a candidate for president.

There was a DJ who kept the crowd on their feet singing and doing the wave for hours. A performance by music legend Willie Nelson. And glowing wrist bracelets distributed to an energetic crowd that included people who waited more than five hours to enter the stadium.

And, amid deafening cheers and applause, arguably the most famous woman in the world introduced Harris to the stage: Beyoncé.

“Is it possible not to feel the energy in this room,” BeyoncĂ© said before quickly switching to a serious tone.

“I’m not here as a celebrity, I’m not here as a politician, I’m here as a mother,” she said. “A mother who cares deeply about the world my children and all of our children live in. A world where we have the freedom to control our bodies.”

(Well, yes, because when I think of Beyonce, it's not as a great pop star or beautiful woman, it's as a "mother.")

There is something happening here, of which this is only a part, which the media neither understands nor is exploring, a strategy targeting Donald Trump, and only Donald Trump. 

The July rollout of the Harris-Walz campaign, which sparked immense enthusiasm and a sharp rise in favorable polls, would eventually hit a brick wall and require a reset. The vice president realized that there are many Independents (and a few Republicans) who believe both parties are committed only to winning elections and the special interests which back them. They believe politicians are addicted to bickering with, and getting an edge on, the opposition while accomplishing nothing.

And so in late August, Kamala Harris told CNN's Dana Bash that she "would" appoint a Republican to the Cabinet. Nominating Adam Kinzinger as Secretary of Veterans Affairs or someone else reasonably characterized as a Republican in Name Only would be reasonable. Nonetheless, the Vice President could have been less explicit, explaining that she would tap the best individual who would reflect the values of her Administration and her determination that government serve the American people effectively.


            


This is only a small item, in which "hope." unveiled at the Democratic National convention, has been replaced with an emphasis on bipartisanship..

On July 21, 2024 President Joe Biden announced that he will not be seeking re-election. On September 4, former US Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming publicly endorsed Kamala Harris for President, stating "because of the danger that Donald Trump poses, not only am I not voting for Donald Trump but I will be voting for Kamala Harris." On October 3, Cheney appeared with Harris at a rally in Ripon, Wisconsin, the birthplace of the Republican Party, and asserted "I have never voted for a Democrat but this year, I am proudly casting my vote for Vice President Kamala Harris."  She noted Donald Trump "is petty, he is vindictive, and he is cruel, and Donald Trump is not fit to lead this good and great nation."

On October 21, Harris and Cheney began a tour of the battleground states of the northern tier, appearing together in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

It is not by coincidence or oversight that the very conservative Liz Cheney, daughter of the destructive vice President Dick Cheney (who also has endorsed Harris), warns the voting public of the evil of Donald Trump, the lawlessness of Donald Trump, and the danger posed by Donald Trump (all accurate).  Cheney was co-chairperson of the January 6 commission and was vanquished in a House primary by a relatively unknown candidate endorsed by Donald Trump, who has recommended a military tribunal try Cheney for treason. The penalty for treason is death and the former congresswoman takes the threat seriously. Hanging focuses the mind.


 


Cheney is courageous, the evidence being that few other former or current Republican officeholders, have been as definitive or as public as she has in urging the defeat of Donald Trump by Kamala Harris. The current Speaker of the House is only one Republican, albeit a uniquely powerful one, who is enthusiastically supporting  the former President. This comes even (especially) after Trump has attacked the "enemy within" and has been credibly described as a "fascist" by his former Chief of Staff, who reports that President Trump openly lamented that "my generals" weren't as deferential to him as he believes Adolf Hitler's generals were to the Fuehrer.

Amidst the former GOP officials who last month signed a letter supporting Harris and the Trump administration officials who promulgated a letter backing General Kelly's description of Trump, very few Republican officeholders have anything but favorable words for the ex-President. Now on board are Senators Marco Rubio, Lindsay Graham, Mike Lee, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, former governor Nikki Haley, and numerous other prominent Republicans who condemned Trump in the wake of the 1/6/21 insurrection or whom he condemned.

Not a word Liz Cheney- still a Republican- has said nothing about these individuals. Kamala Harris is stunningly quiet.  Add to them the Harris-Walz campaign and the vast majority of Democratic insiders, who have turned mum about members of what many had legitimately termed a "cult."

This appears to have been a conscious choice by a presidential candidate who is not only concerned most about her own campaign, but exclusively on her own campaign. And this is very likely having ramifications for down-ballot Democrats.

It's difficult to determine how much impact there has been from the decision to vilify Donald Trump- as he should be- while pretending no other Republican has stymied the agenda of incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden or added to the toxic atmosphere in Washington or across the nation. But we can get a clue from the changing outlook for one Democrat, Senator Tammy Baldwin, in the swing state of Wisconsin.

When Joe Biden was still the more or less presumed nominee, pundits noted that Democrats would lose the Senate race in West Virginia, with their other most endangered seats in Maryland, Ohio, Montana, and Arizona. Though the Democratic candidate in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin was not a shoo-in, the GOP was seen as unlikely to overcome the odds there.

The races in the latter states are now, as Dan Rather would put it, "hotter than a Times Square Rolex." On July 21, Baldwin led her GOP challenger, Eric Hovde,, 48.0% to 43.2%, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls. 

On September 10, with Harris riding high, Baldwin enjoyed a 50.8 to 44.9 lead. However, on September 24, her lead had declined to 50.8 to 46.0 and on October 10, it was 49.4 to 46.0. In the latest numbers, of October 24, the lead had shrunk to 48.0% to 47.2%, less than a one percent advantage. On October 10, it was 49.4 to 46.0 

It is only one state, maybe there was an issue. peculiar to Wisconsin involved, and there is always the margin of error factor. However- again a Ratherism, this race is "tight as the pages in a book." So, too, has the Democratic advantage in Senate races dwindled in Nevada and Ohio, and the Republican challenger to Democrat Jon Testa in Montana has winded.

Once Biden had his infamous, disastrous debate with Trump in early July, Donald Trump was at "first and goal from four yards out" (yes, Rather again). Fortunately, Trump has been driven back and the end zone, while still in his sight, is much further away.

It seems that all the while, the fortunes of Democratic senatorial candidates have been dwindling.  Moreover, the Democratic Party's advantage in the generic preference for the House of Representatives  "has slipped to just +0.5 points over the Republicans, down from a peak of 12.6 in early September.".

The slippage in the possibility that Democrats will fare well in Senate races and regain control in the House should not be surprising. Kamala Harris' campaign of joy relied not on defense of the Biden-Harris record nor ideological principle but primarily on the personal appeal of Kamala Harris as contrasted to the sour, dour, raging anger of Donald Trump. The emphasis in the latter half of the campaign has been on the peril of Donald Trump, and Donald Trump alone, as if he is not faithfully representing the extremist values and divisive strategy of the Republican Party.

Undecided voters, the Vice President hopes, have gotten the message. She can get along with Republicans, and they like her. No more will Washington be a cacophony of quarreling factions, accomplishing nothing. 

Such voters, most of them Independents and presumably all independent-minded, are being called upon to pull the lever (or punch the card, or whatever) for Harris-Walz. Many of them (as Kamala Harris likely realizes) will decide to opt for her, then be faced with a decision on down-ballot candidates. Having- however reluctantly- gone for the less divisive presidential candidate, they will choose to balance out their vote by choosing Republican candidates (bipartisanship, you know).

Most of them believe both parties are generally rancid and that neither party deserves much of an advantage over the other. So they will have little reason not to split the difference, especially because the Democratic Party, as guided by the top of the presidential ticket (the top of the pecking order) now appears to stand for only one thing: Trump bad, Republicans good.



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