Dismal Outlook

I don't care much for his sleazy mother. However, this Republican is exactly right:

I don’t think this is true. But even if true, it misses the point: The Biden team wanted and needed this debate to change the direction of the race, BECAUSE HE IS LOSING. He failed. So arguing that “the race hasn’t changed” is not a very powerful argument for keeping Biden https://t.co/cmKGVJHWVS

— Jonah Goldberg (@JonahDispatch) June 30, 2024

Polls this far out from a general election usually are all over the place. Prior to last Thursday's presidential debate, a rough consensus had formed that President Joe Biden trailed Donald J. Trump, though probably within the margin of error. Biden evidently trailed Trump in the vast majority of swing states but not by an insurmountable degree. 

Nonetheless, the fundamentals had swung strongly in the Republican's direction.  Several days after Donald Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts in New York, the Gallup organization conducted a survey of voters' perceptions of the presumptive Democratic and Republican nominees for President. The results were not widely covered, yet would have been startling if they had been.

Gallup measured support for Biden vs. support for Trump across six variables, in the first five differentiating among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents:

- whether they were pleased with their party's nominee or they "wish someone else were the nominee";

-whether they have a favorable view of Biden, Trump, and of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.;

- as to agreeing or disagreeing that each of the two major candidates "has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have";

- whether they "agree or disagree with (Donald Trump/Joe Biden) on "the issues that matter most to you";

- whether the candidate's "political views are too conservative, about right, or too liberal";

- as to "how concerned are you that (Joe Biden/Donald Trump) is too old to be president: very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned or not concerned at all."

On every measure- even prior to the 6/27/24 debate- Donald Trump had an advantage over Joe Biden, and not by a little. And we already knew that voters blame Biden for a bad economy which doesn't exist and for a surge in violent crime which hasn't occurred, as well as for the immigration problem.

Joe Biden may still be the nominee and possibly win the election. However, we don't know about the first, the second is unlikely, and if the election were held this week, the result would be an Electoral College blowout. 

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