Economic Fantasy

The Republican Party continues to construct, or to propagate its already constructed, alternate economic reality.

Newly-elected head of the Republican National Committee, Michael Steele, wasted no time in his appearance on this morning's This Week with George Stephanopoulos. In response to Stephanopoulos' first question/comment, Steele remarked (page 3 of transcript):

Well, I think that's laughable. I mean, he acts like we have spent the last eight years in -- in this -- in the mess that we're currently in. This is about 18 months old.

The reality of it is, Bush inherited a recession. He got us through that recession. The spending was out of whack. There's no doubt about that. And a lot of Republicans had a problem with the level of spending that took place during that time.

But the economy did grow. Close to 6 million jobs were created.

The "Bush inherited a recession" line just won't die. Though Mr. Bush was inaugurated on January 20, 2001, CNN reported on November 21, 2008

The world's largest economy sank into a recession in March, ending 10 years of growth that was the longest expansion on record in the United States, a group of economists that dates U.S. business cycles said Monday.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), composed of academic economists from Harvard, Stanford and other universities, joined a chorus of economists and investors who were saying that a recession had already begun. The group posted its decision on its Web site.

It ruled that the long expansion ended in March and the nation's tenth recession since the end of World War II began at the same time.

If it is only fair to suggest there is little a President Bush could have done in 1-2 months to hold off a recession, it's only accurate to note that "the longest expansion lasted exactly 10 years. The previous record for uninterrupted economic growth was set in the 1960s, a period of eight years and 10 months lasting from February 1961 to December 1969." And netrootsmass.com analyzed Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers, finding

seasonally adjusted numbers for nonfarm jobs (defined as those not involving farm work, general government, private households, or nonprofit organizations serving individuals), in its 8 years (from January 2001 to January 2009 (est.)), the Bush Administration created 2,111,000 jobs or 21,990/month. 150,000 to 200,000 per month would be expected to accompany an economic expansion or, in other words, 14.4 million to 19.2 million over the course of an 8 year Presidency. Under Bush, the economy also lost 4,401,000 manufacturing jobs. These are jobs that traditionally had good wages and benefits and at the end of the Bush Administration accounted for only 12.71 million of the nation’s 134.6 million nonfarm jobs (or 9.4% of them). Bush lost twice as many of these good paying manufacturing jobs during his time in office as he has created jobs of all other kinds. In all, the US lost 25.7% of its manufacturing jobs under Bush.

By contrast in the 8 years of the Clinton Administration (from January 1993 to January 2001), 22,744,000 nonfarm jobs were created or ~237,000/month. Bush’s job creation rate was only 9.3% of the Clinton rate. At the same time, manufacturing jobs in the Clinton years showed a modest increase of 323,000.

So despite a spurt in defense spending in the last Administration, a little over 2.1 million- not 6 million- jobs were created (according to the Wall Street Journal, 3.0 million), compared to 22+ million under Bill Clinton. And the U.S.A. lost over one-fourth of its manufacturing jobs- traditionally those with good pay and benefits-during the Bush Administration.

To be sure, Repub pols do not embrace the Bush presidency; far from it. To hear them speak of the last president, it is almost as if the latter existed almost in a kind of political limbo, not a Democrat but not a Republican, either, just someone held captive by an evil, left-wing Congress (though sometimes controlled by the GOP, a fact in danger of being lost in history). An understandable approach, politically, but one which should not go uncontested.