The Folly Of Non-Partisan Primaries

As I'm typing this on the morning of the New Hampshire caucus, the pundits seem to be alternating between describing the Democratic race as "making history" and "transformative" and lowering the expectations of the size of the certain Obama victory, so as to avoic later tonight having to describe the margin as "disappointing" or, worse yet, less than "historical." Amidst the thousands of hours of commentary I've heard, or lines of print I've read, about this race, not one voice of criticism, or doubt, about having the Democratic race determined in large part by non-Democrats (Republicans and especially independents) has been voiced. Nor has any Democrat wondered aloud what it might mean about the probable Democratic nominee that he is fighting in New Hampshire for votes with John McCain, the born-again supply-sider and ever-fanatical supporter of Gulf War II. (Following McCain's interview with its editorial board, The Wall Street Journal wrote "As for the tax cuts themselves, he now pledges that he would fight to make them permanent. “I will not agree to any tax increase,” he says. And then once more for emphasis: “I will not agree to any tax increase.”)

Nor has there been much, if any, criticism since the Iowa vote about the overwhelmingly white profile of that state and of New Hampshire. Analysts have been impressed by Barack Obama's ability to win in such an environment, without any appreciation that the near-absence of blacks in those two states is precisely what has shielded the race from any impact of race- that racial confusion, ambiguity, tension that is more a factor in those states which are racially heterogenous.

This is not to suggest that a black- or, more significantly and imminently, Barack Obama- cannot get elected in the United States of America in 2008. But any excitement about a "movement" fueled in large part by Independents ought to be tempered by doubt by the appropriateness of a nomination being decided by individuals who have rejected that party, and by the realization that the election will be affected mightily by conditions prevailing in the country in ten months.