The Ideal Opponent

There have been two major impediments to the nomination, but especially the election, of Hillary Clinton. She has had to demonstrate that she is likeable and that a woman can be trusted to maintain the security of the United States. Although the string of Democratic debates and forums have proven little, the perception of Mrs. Clinton as the stereotypical woman, concerned about children and peace and unable to handle the reins of government, has been dispelled. Still, she is viewed by a sizeable portion of the American electorate as shrill and unfeeling, and distrusted as a political chameleon.

On the "Chris Matthews Show" Sunday, a video was shown of an appearance Mrs. Clinton made in front of an influential group, presumably in New York City, on February 6, 2000 as she was campaigning to become United States Senator. She stated "I may be new to the neighborhood but I'm not new to your concerns.... Now I know it's not always going to be an easy campaign (slight pause) but eh (hey?) this is New York."

Matthews and his panel of journalists understandably, justifiably, groaned. Clinton was corny, transparent, and, speaking with a slight New York accent, disingenuous.

And she was elected- not specifically because of this appearance, but I doubt that it hurt. The Senator understands better than most the importance of telling the voters that you're at one with their concerns ("I feel your pain") and of identifying with those voters. It's why, at least in part, Vice President George Herbert Walker Bush assured Repub primary voters that he was pro-life when anyone minimally aware knew that he was not and, at base, probably never would be. And why Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney obfuscate and distort their records and figuratively twist themselves into pretzels to explain that they are anti-abortion rights, anti- gay rights, and pro- gun rights. They need not convince- and probably not even persuade- likely primary voters, merely assure them that they are concerned about their opinion and anxious for their support.... which they demonstrate by renouncing, or reinterpreting, their prior views. (Notably, GHWB remembered culturally conservative voters were powerful enough to help get him into the White House and acted accordingly.)

And Mrs. Clinton knows how to identify with voters, whether they be her base of educated, largely upscale and single women or black voters, with whom she at least once discovered her Southern accent. And perhaps she can identify with more mainstream general election voters. Matthews noted "lately, she's been selling this thing: 'I'm a Midwestern daughter.'" Asked whether voters would prefer a Clinton "blended background" or a Giuliani "big-city background," the program's panel of journalists (most of whom are not on the air for that particular episode) insightfully had chosen "blended background" 11 to 1.

And make no mistake about it. If in the very unlikely event HRC's prayers are answered and she gets Rudy as an opponent next year (an outcome Giuliani has been boosting), Mrs. Clinton will not run as the Senator from New York but as the "midwestern daughter." She still will not be especially likeable but Giuliani, whom Matthews (approvingly, oddly) quoted as saying "either you like me or I hate you," will be, once the country gets to know him in early autumn of 2008, seen as charming as Bobby Knight after a loss. Against Rudy Giuliani, that would be enough.